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PDF: Beating the NFL Football Point Spread

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times Source: www.cs.cmu.edu // Topic: Football
File Size: 1215.05 kb // Total of Page: 8 Page(s)
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Short Desciption: Beating the NFL Football Point Spread. Kevin Gimpel. kgimpel@cs.cmu.edu.
1 Introduction. Sports betting features a unique market structure that, ...
Content Inside: Beating the NFL Football Point Spread Kevin Gimpel kgimpel@cs.cmu.edu 1 Introduction Sports betting features a unique market structure that, while rather different from financial markets, still boasts high stakes and offers large amounts of publicly-available data to learn from. While using statistical models for forecasting in financial markets has been widely explored, exploiting the sports betting market has gone largely undiscussed in the machine learning community. We will describe efforts to attempt to win money by automatically choosing the winning teams (given the point spread) of National Football League (NFL) games. Most analyses of the professional football betting market have concluded that it is an efficient market, suggesting that it is very difficult to formulate a betting strategy that will succeed in the future.[3, 9, 1, 6] By pursuing this problem from a machine learning perspective, we will be challenging the market efficiency hypothesis empirically. There are many kinds of bets for football games, including




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